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  HomeContents of Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering 2006 No.6FORECAST METHOD OF USED NUMBER OF PARTS AND COMPONENTS BASED ON COMPLEX NETWORK

FORECAST METHOD OF USED NUMBER OF PARTS AND COMPONENTS BASED ON COMPLEX NETWORK

 

LIU Fuyun  QI Guoning  YANG Qinghai

(Institute of Contemporary Manufacturing Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027)

 

Abstract: Applying directed complex network to model the main structure of product family, according to in-degree bi-logarithmic coordinate distribution curve and distribution rule of nodes of the network, in-degree evolving rule of nodes of the network is presented, analytic expression of in-degree probability density of nodes is derived. Through the analysis of relation between existing kinds of component and existing product number, an expression of the relation between kinds of component and product number is built. A forecast method of increment of component number and parts based on the increment of product is presented. As an example, the component number of industry stream turbine product family is forecasted, forecast result is verified and forecast error is analyzed.

Key words: Mass customization  Parts analysis  Complex network  Evolving rule

CLC No: TP14 N94

国家自然科学基金(60374057)、国家高技术研究发展计划(2004AA413010)和教育部211“十五”建设(“十五”211CERS-12)资助项目 . Received 20050517, received in revised form 20051207 

 

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