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Forecasting Corrosion
Depth Based on the Maximum
Lyapunov Exponent
ZHAO Ming1 LIANG Ping1 LONG Xinfeng2
(1. School of Electricity Power, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640；
2. School of Chemical Engineering and Energy, South China University of Technology,
Guangzhou 510640)
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Abstract: Pipeline of oil and gas have an increase risk because of pipeline punctures and rupture caused by corrosion. With the aim to forecast pipeline corrosion, the prediction model of corrosion time series is presented based on the maximum Lyapunov exponent. In addition to presenting technical details of the method, the corrosion data tested by electricity resistance probe No.6 after inlet valve for vacuum tower bottom pump No.28 is used for further forecasting corrosion situation. Finally ,the predicted results shows that prediction has a more high precision, and the error is less than 6%, as well as the average error is 3.58%, also indicated that the pre-diction ways based on chaos theory is reasonable in the corrosion research, which can supply a scientific basis for pipeline repair and safety management.
Key words: Corrosion depth Chaos theory Lyapunov exponent Electricity resistance probe Forecasting
CLC No:
TG174.2
广东省自然科学基金资助项目(05006518).
Received
20070320,
received
in
revised
form
20070809
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